The world is lurching from crisis to crisis, trapped in a cycle of firefighting and unable to tackle the roots of the troubles that confront us. Without a sharp change of course, we may be heading towards even more deprivations and injustices, warns the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 

The latest Human Development Report, "Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World", argues that layers of uncertainty are stacking up and interacting to unsettle life in unprecedented ways. The last two years have had a devastating impact for billions of people around the world, when crises like COVID-19 and global conflicts hit back-to-back, and interacted with sweeping social and economic shifts, dangerous planetary changes, and massive increases in polarization. 

The Human Development Index (HDI)  

For the first time in the 32 years that UNDP have been calculating it, the Human Development Index, which measures a nation's health, education, and standard of living, has declined globally for two years in a row. Human development has fallen back to its 2016 levels, reversing much of the progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. 

The reversal is nearly universal as over 90 percent of countries registered a decline in their HDI score in either 2020 or 2021 and more than 40 percent declined in both years, signaling that the crisis is still deepening for many. While some countries are beginning to get back on their feet, recovery is uneven and partial, further widening inequalities in human development.

"The world is scrambling to respond to back-to-back crises. We have seen with the cost of living and energy crises that, while it is tempting to focus on quick fixes like subsidizing fossil fuels, immediate relief tactics are delaying the long-term systemic changes we must make," says Achim Steiner, UNDP Administrator. "We are collectively paralyzed in making these changes. In a world defined by uncertainty, we need a renewed sense of global solidarity to tackle our interconnected, common challenges." 

Among all other countries worldwide, China ranks 79 with the index rose from 0.761 (in 2019) to 0.768 this year.

The report explores why the change needed isn't happening and suggests there are many reasons, including how insecurity and polarization are feeding off each other today to prevent the solidarity and collective action we need to tackle crises at all levels. New calculations show, for instance, that those feeling most insecure are also more likely to hold extreme political views.

To chart a new course, the report recommends implementing policies that focus on investment — from renewable energy to preparedness for pandemics, and insurance — including social protection — to prepare our societies for the ups and downs of an uncertain world. While innovation in its many forms — technological, economic, cultural — can also build capacities to respond to whatever challenges come next. 

There is peril in new uncertainties, in the insecurity, polarization and demagoguery that grip many countries. But there is promise, too — an opportunity to reimagine our futures, to renew and adapt our institutions and to craft new stories about who we are and what we value. This is the hopeful path forward, the path to follow if we wish to thrive in a world in flux. 

To learn more about the 2022 Human Development Report and UNDP's analysis on navigating the new uncertainty complex, visit https://hdr.undp.org/human-development-report-2021-22